Daily Commentary
5/2/24
Wheat futures have traded both sides of unchanged after the morning open. The overnight session had futures up double digits on some technical support with prices bouncing off key moving averages. CHI is up1, KC is up 7, and MN is up 3. Row crops are stronger with Corn up 6, and Beans up 17. Canola futures are higher by 8 points. Paris wheat futures are lower in the May contract and higher in the September contract.
The U.S. Dollar is higher, Wall Street is mixed, Crude is lower, and Gold is lower.
The weekly export sales report was out this morning for sales made through 4/25/24. 2023/24 wheat sales were at -20,300 mt, while 2024/25 sales came in at 406,900 mt. Traders were expecting 100,000-600,000 mt. White wheat sales were at 12,000 mt for 23/24 and 58,500 mt for 24/25. Chile came into the white wheat market for 14,000 mt of new crop bushels. Japan was the main buyer with 21,100 mt of 24/25 wheat purchased. HRW old crop sales were a little skewed at -54,900 mt. Unknown switched 95,000 mt from old crop to new crop which threw the total for 23/24 sale out of whack. Nigeria was in 33,000 mt of old crop. New crop HRW sales were at 167,200 mt. HRS continues to see decent sales with 12,900 mt being booked for 23/24, and 116,700 mt sold for 24/25. Weekly corn sales were slightly better than the low end trade estimate with 758,500 mt sold for 23/24 and 33,700 mt sold for 24/25. Japan was the featured buyer with 267,400 mt bought for 23/24. Soybean sales were in the middle of trade guesses with 414,000 mt being traded for 23/24 and 7,000 mt of new crop being sold. Egypt was the main buyer with 146,000 mt being sold to the North African country for the 2023/24 marketing year.
Ukraine is expecting to market less corn and wheat throughout 2024/25. Smaller production numbers are expected for both commodities with the ongoing war still taking place. Corn exports could drop to 20-21 mmt in 24/25 from 27 mmt expected to be sold this marketing year. Wheat exports could be down 4 mmt from the estimated 23/24 projection at 14 mmt for 24/25.
Local cash markets were able to hold steady during the day on Wednesday. PNW exporters have been sensitive to board moves for what they are willing to buy soft white wheat at lately. Rumors of a smaller Russian crop this upcoming harvest because of a lack of precipitation is helping keep world values firmer. Some analysts are throwing out an 80 mmt Russian crop, but that is yet to be seen. Demand for SWW remains steady enough to keep the market from being flooded with bushels and depress cash values.
Corn futures are trading higher from support from the KC and Bean complexes. U.S. forecasts remain wet with planting progress being delayed a little bit. The corn that was able to get in the ground is loving the rains and should give the crop a good start to the growing season.
Soybeans are seeing spillover support from bean product markets, as well as some technical buying. The USDA crush number for March was an all-time high for the month at 203.7 million bushels, but 2 million bushels below trade expectations.
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MARKETS
MORNING FROM 9:30 - 11:10 A.M.
AFTERNOON FROM 2:30 - 4:30 P.M.
NO AFTERNOON MARKET ON FRIDAY
NON-HARVEST OFFICE HOURS
MON-THURS 7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
FRI 7:30 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
CURRENT PROTEIN SCALES
DNS: +.04/-.08 PER 1/4% BASIS 14%
HRW: +.05/-.10 PER 1/2% BASIS 11.5%